The Forum Finance Group SA | Geneva | Switzerland

The Forum Finance Group SA | Geneva | Switzerland

Financial Services

Geneva, GE 1,901 followers

Global wealth management services with the advantages of an independent advisor | Authorised by FINMA | SEC-registered

About us

ffgg.com The Forum Finance Group SA (FFG) is a leading independent Swiss wealth management firm that provides global wealth management services to an international client base (including US clients) of wealthy entrepreneurs, individuals, and family offices. In creating FFG 30 years ago we have returned to the origins of Geneva's private banking heritage to offer a personalized and attentive asset management service, capable of responding to the challenges of tomorrow while applying today's state-of-the-art asset management techniques. We are licensed as an asset manager by FINMA, the Swiss Financial Markets Supervisory Authority and are registered with the SEC in the United States as a Investment Advisor. CONTACT: Egon Vorfeld, Managing Partner The Forum Finance Group S.A. 65 rue du Rhone | 1204 Geneva | Switzerland T: + 41 22 552 8300 vorfeld@ffgg.com ffgg.com Neither I nor The Forum Finance Group are responsible for and do not encourage third parties to post anything on our behalf. Personal and company endorsements/testimonials by third parties are not accepted or encouraged. All posts and publications are for your information only and are not intended as an offer, promotion, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or perform any other financial transactions. All information and opinions expressed in post and publications reflect our current views as of the date of the publication and may be liable to change without notice.

Website
https://www.ffgg.com
Industry
Financial Services
Company size
11-50 employees
Headquarters
Geneva, GE
Type
Privately Held
Founded
1994
Specialties
Global wealth management, Asset management, Discretionary portfolio management, Investment advisory, Family office services, For international entrepreneurs, individuals and families, and For US clients - We are SEC-registered

Locations

Employees at The Forum Finance Group SA | Geneva | Switzerland

Updates

  • US election impact on our portfolio positioning... At the time of writing, it seems that Donald Trump has won the US presidency (277 against 224). The Republicans have won control of the Senate with a minimum of 51 seats and made gains in the House of Representatives (where they already had a majority), although the latter is still very close. The narrow majorities in Congress are volatility suppressing. Overall, a Republican mandate means: 1) deregulation, 2) lower taxes, 3) tariffs and 4) immigration controls. While these policies are certainly inflationary, it will be great for US domestic (small caps) but a headwind for the rest of the world (international by US definition). It will mean a stronger dollar, at least in the short term. Following the corrections of recent weeks, we remain very positive on the equity markets, particularly in the United States. Indeed, the Republican platform should initially boost growth before possibly suffering from excessive spending, which will weigh on the public deficit and hence on interest rates. With the uncertainties surrounding the US elections removed, volatility has fallen sharply, paving the way for a very favourable end to the year for the markets. As a result, we are increasing our equity exposure in our portfolios. The increase in the equity allocation will favour US equities and global equities at the expense of European equities. For higher-risk profiles and US dollar-denominated portfolios, we maintain exposure to mid and small caps at around 10-15% of the US equity allocation. In terms of currencies, we are slightly increasing the dollar component of our portfolios at the expense of European currencies. Perhaps surprisingly, markets are higher this morning, certainly on the back of reduced uncertainty following the calm US election result. This rebound is welcome and gives us the opportunity to continue repositioning our allocations. There are still many challenges ahead, particularly on the bond side and especially in the interest-rate-sensitive segments. Our preference for European duration and our broad exposure to credit should reduce the risk of significant capital losses in this part of our portfolios. We remain cautious on US duration and are holding our positions in the European zone, given the risk of excesses, which could provide us with a good buying opportunity. Emerging market government bonds, where we are not present, are likely to move in line with US rates. Our bond positions are exclusively in corporate bonds, which are much less sensitive to interest rates than government bonds.

  • We are now well into the final stretch of 2024 and remain confident of a supportive economic environment. After a month in which all eyes were on central banks, October focused on the future of economic growth, particularly in the US, before early November gives way to the great circus that is the US election. On the growth front, the IMF's latest publication raised its forecast for US economic growth to 2.7% in 2024, up 0.6 percentage points from its January forecast. The move underlines how the US is outperforming other developed economies. The strong performance of the US economy mainly reflects robust productivity gains and employment growth. The removal, albeit partial, of uncertainty about the future and pace of monetary policy normalisation has temporarily pushed inflation into the background. This may be a temporary situation, as the return of a possible Republican victory in the upcoming US presidential election is causing renewed concern in the interest rate market, not least because of the fiscal slippage and tariff increases advocated in the Republican manifesto. In terms of seasonality, we're entering the most productive part of the year for the US equity market. Since 1945, the months of October, November, and December have averaged gains of 1.04%, 1.56%, and 1.58%, respectively. We continue to believe that economic data, particularly in the US, remains supportive, e.g. labour market, consumer confidence, monetary support and earnings growth will continue to underpin US equities, but we recognise that inflationary policies will put pressure on long-term interest rates.  https://lnkd.in/e9HEn4zS

    Newsletter | November 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    Newsletter | November 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    https://www.ffgg.com

  • The Deloitte International Wealth Management Centre Ranking 2024 is out! Switzerland remains the leading centre in terms of both competitiveness and size. With USD2.2tn of international assets, Switzerland remains the largest booking centre in the world. Singapore and the US rank second and third in competitiveness, and the UK and US follow Switzerland in size. We will all work hard to keep it that way. The Forum Finance Group SA | Geneva | Switzerland The competitiveness ranking provides an assessment of a centre’s long-term potential. Greater competitiveness creates the preconditions for success, and improves the centre’s ability to win client confidence and attract financial assets. Highly competitive centres typically offer better service providers, highly qualified staff, and superior products and services. Political stability has gained importance recently due to rising geopolitical uncertainty, and monetary stability is also more significant, with inflationary surges impacting the global economy. 

  • Here is our 2-page monthly newsletter covering what happened in the financial markets last month and some of our thoughts on the immediate future. September marked a milestone for the US central bank after more than two years of fighting inflation, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcing a 50bp cut and hinting that more cuts were on the way. In Europe, both the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates in September, the former for the second time by 25 basis points and the latter for the third time, as inflation slowed and concerns about the eurozone economy resurfaced. This monetary easing is taking place against a backdrop in which the battle of recent quarters appears to be on the winning side, as confirmed by the latest inflation figures, particularly in Europe, where headline inflation is already approaching the European Central Bank's 2% target. These cyclical dynamics reinforce the soft-landing thesis and enabled both bond and equity markets to post positive performances in September. This optimism also pushed many sentiment indicators into the green, providing further support for risky assets. As central banks clarify their policy normalisation, which the market has already partially priced in, risk appetite remains favourable, reinforcing our constructive stance, particularly on equities. It is crucial to recognise that market leadership will continue to evolve, as we have seen on several occasions this year, albeit without much repetition, at least so far. On the bond side, we continue to rotate into duration at the expense of credit. We are differentiating our stance more clearly by region, with a broad preference for European duration and a more cautious stance on US duration. In terms of the currency mix of our portfolios, we are taking advantage of the recent weakening of the US dollar to increase our US currency exposure in Swiss franc and euro accounts. https://lnkd.in/epefVYsA

    Newsletter | October 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    Newsletter | October 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    https://www.ffgg.com

  • The Forum Finance Group SA | Geneva | Switzerland newsletter for September. The beginning of the month was marked by a sharp sell-off triggered by weaker than expected non-farm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate for July, which raised concerns about US growth, and then the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates for the second time this year. Fortunately, the stress was short-lived and the recovery was swift, with the global index closing the month up 1.9% in local currency terms. Although sentiment and momentum indicators briefly gave buying signals, especially for US equities, we decided to leave our exposure virtually unchanged. The rapid rebound in the markets quickly brought us back to a more neutral zone. We are clearly at a crossroads, especially as we enter a seasonally difficult period, but for the time being we remain constructive on both developed and emerging market credit and equities. https://lnkd.in/gVZz9W9W

    Newsletter | September 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    Newsletter | September 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    https://www.ffgg.com

  • The dramatic risk-off moves in recent days, such as the fall in global equity markets and digital assets (e.g. cryptos), remind us of the importance of a balanced position in our portfolios at this stage of the cycle! We are maintaining our existing positioning as long as the technical levels of the uptrend remain intact. However, we are aware that the market's momentum has slowed and this alone could justify a continuation of the adjustments we have made in recent months. https://lnkd.in/eeJV7RNb

    Newsletter | August 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    Newsletter | August 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    https://www.ffgg.com

  • Our Outlook for the 2nd half of 2024 is hot off the press! Outlook 2H 2024: Executive Summary We favour a more balanced positioning across and within asset classes. We believe that bond yields, including those on government bonds - something new for this segment - are attractive. Credit carry is attractive relative to corporate fundamentals, while long-dated government bonds offer protection in more difficult times in addition to their real yield. Favourable economic data and the prospect of interest rate cuts, i.e. the ingredients of the soft-landing narrative, together with solid quarterly earnings, justify a constructive stance on equity markets. However, we would like to see a broader participation in the market rally to reduce the fragility of the bull cycle that started in early 2023. While maintaining an allocation to the technology sector and the famous seven giants, we are balancing our portfolios with exposure to small/mid-caps and the value style, where valuations appear to offer significant catch-up potential.   Economic Outlook Real GDP forecasts lowered for the US and Japan. China and euro area upgraded Monetary easing becomes more widespread Fed and Bank of England will remain on hold until September and August, respectively FOMC dot plot implies only one 25 bps cut by year-end and four in 2025 Fannie Mae predicts that US mortgage rates will average 7% in 2024   Key Risks Sharper slowdown in the U.S. as labour market deteriorates sharply US/China and EU/China trade war intensifies Sovereign debt crisis forces governments to cut spending Populist drift at the ballot box, testing the foundations of our democracies   Investment Convictions Fixed income generally does well when the Fed pauses Long-dated government bonds as a hedge against renewed recession fears Inflation dynamics favour European over US rates (10-Year +) EM corporate bonds offer wider spreads and diversification benefits Prefer EU Fantastic Five to US Magnificent Seven Small/Mid-Caps offer compelling valuation and economic sensitivity Add value stocks for their relative valuation and diversification https://lnkd.in/eqWiZB7P

    Outlook | 2H 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    Outlook | 2H 2024 - Forum Finance Group - Gestion patrimoniale globale - Genève Suisse

    https://www.ffgg.com

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